Don't Pack Those T-shirts Too Soon–Forecasters Predict Warmest Winter Yet in Albany
By Kenzy Alshinhab | October 19, 2026
Ditch the snow boots, hats and gloves, at least for the near future.
The University at Albany’s Atmospheric Science experts say their models indicate Albany may experience a warmer-than-usual winter this year due to a strong El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean.
“We are in a situation this year that we haven’t seen in centuries,” said Atmospheric Sciences professor Dr. Paul Roundy.
The El Niño weather phenomenon is a shift in typical global weather patterns that create a trough over the North Pacific Ocean. This trough can potentially keep Arctic air away from regions farther south, making areas such as Albany warmer in winter (40-50℉ as opposed to the usual winter range of 15-20℉) and allowing temperatures to remain above freezing for much of the season, according to the experts.
Meanwhile, typically warmer areas such as California may experience colder weather with temperatures dropping to 20-30℉ compared to the usual winter range of 45-55℉.
Although El Niño events usually occur every 5-7 years, the 2026 to 2027 cycle is forecasted to be the strongest current yet. This also makes it unusual since it is the second El Niño event in the past 5 years.
“The last time something like this happened – and it was weaker then – was 1877,” said Roundy.
University meteorology professor Dr. Ross Lazear said he agrees with the forecast, noting that warm water in the western Pacific has been building over 15 years because it wasn’t transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere into space. Therefore, Lazear said the event would be more prominent than usual.
Considering that Albany tends to get snow in January and February, Roundy said that doesn’t look like the case this year.
"However, this does not necessarily mean there will be no upstate winter this year. It might just come later in the season," said Roundy.
In the winter of 2015 “…we got a snowstorm in the first week of April. So, the snowiest time that whole winter was in April,” Roundy recalled.
For this coming winter, a chance of mixed precipitation such as “rain to freezing rain or sleet,” is seemingly high, Lazear said. This does not necessarily mean colder weather since freezing rain melts quickly, while snow can linger on the ground, reflecting incoming sunshine back into space.
The difference between the 2023 El Niño and the current event is that while both occurred after the three La Niña events–which are cold phases that cause warm water to buildup in the Pacific Ocean–this El Niño had a lot more time to use the warm water buildup for its strength.
The Pacific Ocean may now contain enough warm water to fuel an El Niño of a magnitude potentially comparable to events not seen in roughly 1,000 years.
Lazear and Roundy said it’s too early to predict when winter weather will end. The cause of this warm winter can be connected to climate change, but it is mainly due to the 2023 El Niño event that followed three La Niña events.
While the duration of the El Niño event is hard to know, Roundy predicted the region might continue to feel the effects until late spring or early summer of 2027.
Although the upcoming season seems unpredictable and chaotic, Roundy said this El Niño event will benefit some communities worldwide by “redistributing where the storms occur and drying out some places that are normally wet.”
So, for all those snow lovers out there, don’t expect a ski vacation or snowball fight just yet!
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