OPINION: Recapping the Predictable 2026 Oscars

By Thomas Fink | April 13, 2026

Photo Credit: Pixabay

The 98th Annual Academy Awards honored the best in films of 2025 on Sunday, March 15. This 2026 Oscars ceremony was held at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California and was televised on ABC and live-streamed on Hulu. 

I found this to be a very gratifying Oscars, as I correctly predicted 18 winners out of 21 categories. To be accurate, there are 24 categories total, but I didn’t have any predictions for the Animated Short Film, Live-Action Short Film or Documentary Short Film categories.

“One Battle After Another” was on the run at-large by scoring the highest prize: Best Picture.

The Academy clearly found it to be 2025’s best film as it won two other major categories that cement a film’s artistic quality: its directing and its screenplay. That’s right–Paul Thomas Anderson, a genuine visionary filmmaker whom some (including me) have labeled “the next Stanley Kubrick,” has finally been recognized by the Academy after 11 previous nominations by striking Oscar gold thrice: Best Adapted Screenplay; Best Director; Best Picture. 

I’m afraid that I must confess that I’m not a fan of “One Battle After Another” due to a variety of complicated reasons that I can’t go into here–so much so, that it’s my pick for the most overrated film of the decade thus far. But no cinephile should deny that it’s a real thrill that such an iconic cinematic artist finally had his Oscar night after multiple decades of waiting for his turn. In my opinion, his finest work is a tie between “Boogie Nights” and “There Will Be Blood” and to boot, both of which are in my top 10 all-time favorite films. 

For Best Original Screenplay, Ryan Coogler was honored for “Sinners," making it the fourth horror film to win an Oscar for its script: 1973’s “The Exoricst”; 1991’s “The Silence of the Lambs”; 2017’s “Get Out." Speaking of “Sinners," Michael B. Jordan bit into Best Actor and this was one of three wins I would get wrong. I had called it for Timothee Chalamet in “Marty Supreme” as he won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award. However, I did predict Jordan would have been the upset due to his SAG Award win. As Jordan plays twin brothers (Smoke and Stack), this is the second time an actor has won an Oscar for playing multiple roles; the first was Lee Marvin in 1965’s “Cat Ballou”. 

Jessie Buckley proved to be the frontrunner for “Hamnet” as she garnered Best Actress. A gut-wrenching, emotionally intense performance makes this a deserved win.

Although he was not present, Sean Penn caught Best Supporting Actor for “One Battle After Another." Out of all the wins, I must admit this is the one I most strongly disagree with. Now, Sean Penn is unquestionably among the finest actors in film history, but his performance as Colonel Lockjaw just doesn’t have the impactful and intricate emotional depth as his first two Oscar-winning performances in 2003’s “Mystic River” and 2008’s “Milk." Perhaps, I need to accept it in the context that he won solely because his acting was the best among the five nominees for Supporting Actor.

On the flip side, I was immensely satisfied to see Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) can now soak her Best Supporting Actress Oscar in her witchcraft bowl. A major reason why I am happy about this win is because Madigan’s characterization of Aunt Gladys is strongly similar to Ruth Gordon’s (Minnie Castevet) Oscar-winning performance in “Rosemary Baby”: both of whom are eccentric, but creepy old women, but who are amusing to watch with their oddball demeanors. 

A brand-new category was presented: Best Casting, and this is the second of the three wins I wrongly called. Although I correctly penciled in “One Battle After Another” as the upset, I was certain “Sinners” would go home with this one as it won the Critics Choice Award and the SAG Award. 

As “Sentimental Value” took home Best International Feature Film, that marks my third and final error. Like my other two mistaken predictions, I rightly called “Sentimental Value” as the upset as it won the BAFTA as well as receiving nine Oscar nominations. My primary prediction was “The Secret Agent” as it won multiple awards in this category: the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe. 

“KPop Demon Hunters” danced away two awards: Best Original Song (“Golden”) and Best Animated Feature Film. 

As “Sinners” disappeared into the night with four Oscars total, the other two were Best Original Score and Best Cinematography. The former is composer Ludvig Goransson’s third win after 2018’s “Black Panther” and 2023’s “Oppenheimer." Autumn Durald Arkapaw became the first female cinematographer to catch the money-shot. 

“Frankenstein” caught lightning in a bottle three times: Best Costume Design; Best Production Design; Best Makeup and Hairstyling. None of this is surprising as director Guillermo del Toro is the supreme visionary given his imaginative and eye-popping production values. 

When “One Battle After Another” scored Best Film Editing, that’s when I knew that it would go on to snatch Best Picture. Oftentimes, the Academy’s pick for the best film also awards its editing. 

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” surprised no one when it flew away with Best Visual Effects. As this is the third chapter in this series, this is the third win for VFX for James Cameron’s franchise. 

As I was lucky enough to experience the audio of “F1” in IMAX, no surprise there as it raced away with Best Sound. 

And lastly, “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” galloped away with Best Documentary Feature Film. Although the ceremony was generally a-political, the documentarian, David Borenstein, had the most political speech of the night as he implied that the incumbent Trump administration is ruining America, comparing him to the titular Putin.